The NFL playoffs are finally here. Plenty has happened in the past few weeks, including both the previously undefeated Indianapolis Colts and New Orleans Saints losing multiple games due in part to resting their starters, moves which New England Patriots Head Coach Bill Belichick probably wishes he had made now that wide receiver Wes Welker is likely out for the playoffs. At the top of each conference, New Orleans and Indianapolis still managed to cruise to No. 1 berths despite what seemed to be late-season collapses and the wild card battles were as exciting (and definitive) as ever.
In the AFC, seven teams somehow still had a chance to make the playoffs; the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers both won at 1 p.m., temporarily claiming the two available spots and leaving themselves to wait on the results of the Denver Broncos and Baltimore Ravens games at 4 p.m. and the New York Jets at 8 p.m. – each successive winning team would move into the top wild card slot, knocking all others down one notch. The Broncos fell to the Kansas City Chiefs but the Ravens held off the Oakland Raiders to knock the Steelers out and claim the top spot, putting Houston’s hopes on the Cincinnati Bengals beating the Jets. That did not happen, as the Jets annihilated the lackadaisical Bengals, 37-0, to claim the top wild card berth, relegating the Ravens to the final spot in the AFC side of the playoffs. The loss left the Bengals at No. 4 and the New England Patriots No. 3, with both preparing to win wild card matchups for the chance to face clear conference-favorites Indianapolis and San Diego, leaving us with the following 2010 playoff matchups:
No. 5 New York Jets at No. 4 Cincinnati, Saturday, Jan. 9 at 4:30 p.m.
The first game of the playoffs will provide plenty of excitement with the Bengals hoping to avenge their last appearance, a 2005 loss to Pittsburgh when the infamous Kimo von Oelhoffen tore up quarterback Carson Palmer’s knee, derailing a potential Super Bowl journey in the minds of most Bengals fans, especially after the Steelers clawed their way to the championship as the No. 6 seed. Meanwhile, the Jets, in their first playoff game since 2006, will be trying to win their first playoff game since a 41-0 stomping of the Colts in 2003. On the surface this is the exact same matchup as the final weekend, except that this time the Bengals will host. Both teams’ pass defenses are stellar, with cornerbacks Darrelle Revis and Dwight Lowery trying to silence the Bengals’ superior passing game and Leon Hall and Jonathon Joseph hoping to shut wideouts Jerricho Cotchery and Braylon Edwards down completely so Cincinnati can stack the box against the Jets’ six-cylinder rushing attack. Cincinnati will be looking for revenge at home after being embarrassed this past weekend, and Chad Ochocinco (who said prior to the loss that if he was shut down by Revis he would change his name back to Johnson – “that’s how confident I am” – he was held without a catch and had not yet said whether he would follow through) will of course provide plenty of unpredictable commentary leading up to the game, but the game itself will be as predictable as any – both teams will run it at each other’s throats as long as possible. Whoever takes the lead first will probably win, as the more either team has to pass the worse its chances to win will become.
Outcome: Jets 20, Bengals 13
No. 6 Baltimore Ravens at No. 3 New England Patriots, Sunday, Jan. 10 at 1 p.m.
Once Pittsburgh hit its five-game losing skid mid-season, Baltimore was expected to take the division with ease despite the Bengals’ steadily improving play, but the Ravens found themselves fighting for a wild card spot the last week. It was partially their fault, as a close loss to Pittsburgh in Week 16 made a Week 17 win a necessity, but unlike most other playoff hopefuls Baltimore needed no help from others – win and they were in. Win they did, and with New England falling to Houston but still holding the No. 3 seed, the Ravens head into a matchup with the Welker-less Patriots as the underdogs. Without Welker, it is anyone’s guess what New England’s offensive plan will be, but it is likely wideout Randy Moss will haul in two or three times as many passes as usual and tight end Ben Watson should get a few more looks over the middle. Whether Welker’s absence truly will affect the Patriots is yet to be seen – they have won games in which he played poorly and lost some in which he played spectacularly, although they do appear more cohesive with him than without. Both teams are solid enough on each side of the ball, and without Welker the matchup becomes just that much more even than an early-season New England victory.
Outcome: Patriots 27, Ravens 21
No. 5 New York Jets at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
The NFL’s best quarterback faces the NFL’s best cornerback. The difference will be, Peyton Manning has more than one receiver to throw to, whereas Darrelle Revis can only cover one at a time – at least, as far as we know. The Jets’ run game will have to keep up with Manning since Mark Sanchez will probably try to do too much early, leading to a quick interception or two. The Jets have a chance, but the Colts are just too good to give this one up, and it shouldn’t even be close. The experience and ability of the Colts just simply dwarfs those of the Jets.
Outcome: Colts 24, Jets 10
No. 3 New England Patriots at No. 2 San Diego Chargers
The Chargers have changed their game in recent years, letting quarterback Philip Rivers throw to anyone on the field while limiting running back Ladainian Tomlinson’s carries, which unfortunately is for the best considering how poorly the offensive line has blocked for him the past two seasons. Things have been going the Chargers’ way, however, as they come in as the hottest team in the league, having won their last 11 games. The numbers do lie a bit here, though, as about half of those wins were by one possession and only three were against teams with winning records (one being the unimpressive-of-late Bengals). Again, without Welker, the Patriots’ offense will be much different, but against the Chargers that may work in the Patriots’ favor – the Chargers defense has the intensity to force Welker off the ball but not the height, speed or cover skills to hang with Randy Moss on the deep balls. “Brady to Moss” could be echoed over the loudspeakers all day long.
Outcome: Patriots 34, Chargers 24
No. 3 New England Patriots at No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
The premier matchup just about every year for the past decade will occur once again; this time, advantage Colts. Both defenses are capable, but it would be just plain ignorant to not be an all-out offensive battle. This year both teams are very similar in makeup and, although Welker will be out for the Patriots, the teams are almost interchangeable. Manning and Brady have been two of the best and, more importantly, most victorious quarterbacks in the league this decade, as have wide receivers Reggie Wayne and Randy Moss. Neither team relies on a single running back, using instead two or three capable backs depending on game situations. The only real difference is on defense, where the Colts’ front line is more feared for its run defense and pass rush, whereas the Patriots live by pass defense from its cornerbacks and secondary. Both teams know success at all levels and have lost relatively little in recent years, so the teams know each other well. The Colts have the advantage of playing at home for the matchup, but they will do so with a rookie coach while the Patriots have the infamous Bill Belichick at the helm, although without Welker they gain no ground on the Colts heading in. If it were in Foxboro, Mass., the story would be much different and far from predictable; in Indianapolis, however, the Colts should triumph in what could be a historic offensive display.
Outcome: Colts 45, Patriots 34
Things used to be simpler. The NFC was as straightforward as anyone could ask for. There were two favorites-the New Orleans Saints and the Minnesota Vikings. But now, the conference is a total crapshoot.
While the Saints and Vikings staggered towards the finish line, the Dallas Cowboys exorcized ghosts of Decembers past, the Green Bay Packers won seven of their final eight games, the Philadelphia Eagles won six of their final seven, and the defending conference champion Arizona Cardinals ran away with another NFC West title.
Now, heading into the playoffs, an argument could be made for any of these six teams. There have been times where every team seemed capable of emerging as a powerhouse, and there have been other times when they all looked destined to go one-and-done. At this point can anyone be considered a favorite? The difference between the top and the bottom seed in the playoffs comes down to a measly two games.
With that said, there was only one playoff team in the NFC with a completely meaningless week seventeen and that would be the Saints. The feel-good Saints seemed to be unstoppable after dismantling the New England Patriots on Monday Night Football and improving to 11-0. At the time, everything was going the Saints way-Drew Brees was making a place in the top tier of quarterbacks with Payton Manning and Tom Brady, the defense was finally respectable under the coaching of Gregg Williams, and everything ran through the Louisiana Superdome, an unmatched home field advantage.
But things quickly went sour. After barely escaping Washington with a 33-30 win in overtime, the Saints won another three point affair over the Atlanta Falcons, who were forced to start quarterback Chris Redman and running back Jason Snelling due to injuries to Matt Ryan and Michael Turner. This set the stage for a primetime showdown with Dallas, who, considering the Saints’ remaining schedule at the time, seemed to be the final hurdle to an undefeated regular season. What transpired was a Cowboy beat down through three quarters in front of the New Orleans faithful. Despite a great effort from the New Orleans offense and Dallas kicker Nick Folk, the Saints efforts proved to be too little too late and they fell forty yards short of completing the comeback.
Even though the quest for a perfect season was over, there was still a lot of football to play; however, it didn’t seem like the Saints were very interested. The following week, after jumping out to an early 17-0 lead over the 2-12 Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Saints collapsed, allowing Tampa to come all the way back to tie in the fourth quarter, and win it 20-17 in overtime after Garrett Hartley missed a 37-yard field goal that would have sealed the game for New Orleans. The Saints completed the trifecta closing out the season with a loss against the Carolina Panthers. That said, in all fairness, the reserves were in and the Saints embraced their inner-Jim Caldwell.
Going into the playoffs, it’s simple for New Orleans. They have to regain their early-season form and jump out to early leads. This puts opposing teams on their heels to keep up with the high scoring New Orleans offense, and, in conjunction, out of the running backs hands (New Orleans ranked 24th in the league allowing 4.5 yards per rush, same as the woeful Oakland Raiders; also, the Saints were third in the NFL with 25 interceptions). However, if they are unable to, they could be seeing their Super Bowl dreams gone along with those of a perfect season.
New Orleans’ top competition for much of the year came from the Minnesota Vikings, who had a similar falloff over the past five weeks. As I’m sure you’ve noticed (or ESPN reminded you on a daily basis), Brett Favre has been making headlines since the day coach Brad Childress picked him up at the airport. Despite the early season controversy (remember, there was supposedly a schism between the Favre and Tavaris Jackson camps…really), the Vikings got off to a hot start. Their offense was running on all cylinders to go along with their historically dominant defense built around the Williams wall (Kevin and Pat Williams) and Jared Allen.
But, like everyone else in the conference, the Vikings showed that they have weaknesses down the stretch. Before a destroying a completely checked out Giants team week 17, the Vikings lost three of four and had more Favre drama. On top of getting blown out by the Cardinals and Panthers and losing to the 5-9 Chicago Bears, there seems to be friction growing concerns between Favre and Childress and it looks possible that Favre may be wearing out his welcome(again…isn’t this similar to what Terrell Owens does with teams? Interesting what the media can do to a player’s image) in Minnesota.
Despite the rough finish, the Vikings were able to regain a first round bye after the Cowboys took down Philadelphia the final week of the season. It remains to be seen whether Antoine Winfield can fully recover from a foot injury to sure up a shaky pass defense; however, any team with the fire power of Favre, Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice, Percy Harvin, Jared Allen, among others has to be considered a major contender to get through the NFC.
Following Minnesota is Dallas, who had a surprisingly stellar finish to their season by knocking off the previously undefeated Saints before shutting out the Washington Redskins and the Eagles the last two weeks of the season to win the NFC East. In prior years, the Cowboys became notorious for falling flat when things mattered most. After back-to-back losses to start December against the Giants and San Diego Chargers, it looked like the Cowboys were on track for another collapse. But unlike prior years, the Cowboys regrouped and finished playing their best football.
After early-season offensive struggles, Dallas was ignited by pro bowler Miles Austin, who emerged as a premier receiver in the league. This took the burden off of flailing Roy Williams and gave the Cowboys a much more explosive passing attack.
On the other side of the ball, Dallas had one of the most dominant defenses in the NFL. They finished second in points-per-game allowed and ninth in yards. The Cowboys feature, perhaps, the league’s most dominant pass rusher in linebacker DeMarcus Ware. Ware finished the year with 11 sacks to follow up seasons of 14 and 20 in 2007 and 2008 respectively. Joining Ware are nose tackle Jay Ratliff and linebacker Anthony Spencer. Ratliff has established himself as one of the league’s best anchoring the team’s 3-4 defense. Spencer ended up with six sacks, all of which coming in the final eight games of the season.
Going into the playoffs Dallas looks poised to make a run if they continue playing at a high level. Their first challenge will come in the Eagles, who they crushed 24-0 to close out the season (more on this matchup later).
The final division winner is the Arizona Cardinals, who had a pretty uneventful season to follow up their Super Bowl run last season. The Cardinals ran away with the NFC west despite losing their two games against the San Francisco 49ers. The Cardinals are very similar to the team that almost brought home the Lombardi trophy last year. Kurt Warner still leads the aerial assault that consists of Larry Fitzgerald, who had another ho-hum 1,092 yard season with 13 touchdowns, and Anquan Boldin who fought through injuries for another 1,000 yard season.
The major difference from last year’s team is rookie running back Beanie Wells. Wells gives the Cards a much more reliable ground game than either Edgerrin James or Tim Hightower provided last season.
On defense, Arizona had an average season, finishing 20th in yards-per-game and 14th in points. However, Darnell Dockett stood out for Arizona with seven sacks and will represent the Cardinals in the pro bowl. The Cardinals also have two pro bowlers in their secondary with safety Adrian Wilson, who had 75 tackles, five interceptions, and two sacks, and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, who had six interceptions and took one back for a touchdown.
The Cardinals know what they have to do; they’re the only team alive in the NFC to have appeared in a Super Bowl since 2005, and only the Eagles have this decade (albeit with a completely different team). It will most likely take an effort similar to last year’s. They’ll need their offense to click, some heroic efforts from their stars, and the defense to play well enough to hold on and give their offense a chance to win it.
In the first round, the Cardinals will faceoff with the team who handed them a 33-7 loss in week 17, the Green Bay Packers (in all fairness, it was a glorified scrimmage).
The Pack has been on fire down the stretch, falling one play short in Pittsburgh from winning their final eight games of the season. This all started with a dominant 17-7 win against Dallas, where Green Bay held the Cowboys from scoring until the final minute. From there, the Pack never looked back.
A few weeks later, Green Bay followed this up with another impressive performance against the Baltimore Ravens, leaving Ravens rethinking their entire offensive philosophy and moving away from the pass back towards the run. Green Bay finished out the year with a hard-fought win over the Bears, the heartbreaking, last-second loss in Pittsburgh, and two convincing wins over the Seahawks and Cardinals.
The Packers offense is built around quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who threw for over 4,400 yards and had 30 touchdowns, while only throwing seven interceptions. Rodgers did that with a Roethlisbergian level of patience, which along with a decimated offensive line led to a league leading 50 sacks. Rodgers is joined by the extremely consistent Donald Driver and explosive Greg Jennings to fuel the Packers passing game.
Ryan Grant gives the team balance and may be Rudi Johnson’s long-lost little brother. Like Johnson, Grant is a consistent ball carrier who runs with power and, while he’s not spectacular, he gets the job done.
On defense, Green Bay is stout. They finished second in the league in terms of yardage and seventh in points. They feature cornerback/safety Charles Woodson, who will surely garner defensive-player-of-the-year votes. On the season he had nine interceptions and two sacks while playing a variety of roles in the defense.
Woodson’s joined by rookie linebacker Clay Matthews, who stepped up after the team lost Aaron Kampman who was struggling in the team’s switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 defense. Matthews had 10 sacks on the year, and seven came in the final eight games of the year.
Going into their playoff matchup against Arizona, Green Bay is on fire and they play a style similar to the Steelers last season-play stalwart defense and make enough big plays to win. They’ll certainly be a tough matchup for whomever they may face in the playoffs.
The sixth seed in the NFC is the Philadelphia Eagles, who looked to be headed towards a first-round bye before Dallas brought them back down to earth in week 17. The Eagles won six straight and it seemed like they were getting ready for another playoff run (which surely would have ended with a soul-crushing loss in the NFC championship game). However, they closed out the season by being shut out by the rival Cowboys and now face a plethora of questions regarding their defense and offensive line.
For much of the year, the team relied on big plays from DeSean Jackson, who will be starting at wide receiver in the pro bowl. The team complimented Jackson with the likes of wide receivers Jeremy Maclin, Jason Avant, and tight end Brent Celek, who all helped keep the chains moving. In typical Andy Reid fashion, the team did not emphasize the run. Leonard Weaver and Michael Vick were used in short yardage situations while LeSean McCoy took the majority of the carries feeling his way around in his first NFL season. This all came while, for most of the season, Brian Westbrook fought concussion problems off the field and aging problems on the field.
On defense, the Eagles were a conundrum. There were times when the defense seemed dominant and dynamic, ranking in the top five in both sacks and interceptions (much to do with Asante Samuel’s nine picks and Trent Cole’s 12.5 sacks). However, there were also the games against the Saints, Chargers, and Cowboys (week 17) when the defense couldn’t get off the field. Many of the problems came with the linebackers. The team lost middle linebacker Stewart Bradley before the season and failed to adequately replace him. They have tried all their options including the washed up Jeremiah Trotter, and no one has proven to be capable. Optimistic fans point to earlier years in the decade when the Eagles were able to get by with similar issues. But I have to question whether those defenses were really as dominant as we were led to believe, or they took advantage of a weaker NFC (a lot like this defense, and after all, those never ended up getting the job done in the end).
As good as this team has looked at times, as a fan of them, I almost find myself looking towards next year when they’ll get another year from McNabb, more experience for Jackson, Maclin, McCoy, and Celek, health and continuity for the offensive line, and a revamped group of linebackers. That said, any given week this team can be explosive enough to beat anyone, but it doesn’t feel like their time to make a run to the big game (keep in mind I’m writing this less than 12 hours after the Eagles were dominated against Dallas, I may be a tad pessimistic regarding my team at the moment).
No. 5 Green Bay Packers at No. 4 Arizona Cardinals
The Packers should be able to move the ball on the suspect Cardinals defense (which may be without one of their top pass rushers, Calais Campbell). On the other side of the ball, Green Bay has the personnel to pressure Kurt Warner and disrupt Arizona’s passing game, which historically has been the blueprint to slowing down Arizona.
Outcome: Packers 24, Cardinals 17
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 3 Dallas Cowboys
I have to believe the Eagles bounce back strong from their first shutout since 2005 (which came with Mike McMahon at quarterback). The Eagles missed many opportunities in the regular season finale and McNabb and co. are too talented to miss them again. To stop Dallas I expect Sean McDermott to unleash the hounds and go after Tony Romo, a strategy that has proven successful for Philadelphia in the past under the late Jim Johnson. Also, I really don’t think I’d come back to school alive if I did pick the Cowboys.
Outcome: Eagles 27, Cowboys 20
No. 6 Philadelphia Eagles at No. 1 New Orleans Saints
In a matchup of two teams that mirror each other, the Eagles and Saints should be trading haymakers. Both teams should be able to put up points in what could be a very entertaining game. With that said, the Saints possess a more consistent offense with the deadly accurate Drew Brees, who historically has his way with the Eagles defense. On the defensive side of the ball, the Saints should be able to pressure McNabb and force enough stops to secure the victory.
Outcome: Saints 30, Eagles 24
No. 5 Green Bay Packers at No. 2 Minnesota Vikings
A Packers-Vikings playoff game could lead to the spontaneous combustion of ESPN. In a matchup that will focus too much on the quarterbacks, the Packers should be better suited to take on Minnesota at this point in the year. Matthews and the rest of the Packers defense should be able to pressure Favre this time around, especially considering the Vikings’ suddenly shaky offensive line (especially the overrated Bryant McKinnie). Also, Rodgers has done a better job getting the ball out and the line has improved over the course of the year.
Outcome: Packers 23, Vikings 17
No. 5 Green Bay Packers at No. 1 New Orleans Saints
The Packers should be able to play a similar game to the one Dallas used to knock off the Saints late in the year. They’ll employ the same 3-4 defense and generate a great deal of pressure with their linebackers (instead of Ware and Spencer, they’ll send Matthews and a combination of the other backers). That should be able to slow down the Saints offense allowing Green Bay to play at their pace. On offense, they have a strong enough run game to exploit the Saints’ run defense and control the clock. Rodgers should be able to make plays and get the Packers a win.
Outcome: Packers 24, Saints 20
No. 5 Green Bay Packers vs. No. 1 Indianapolis Colts
As impressive a job as the Packers will have to do to get here, it just won’t quite be enough. The Colts are better in every single facet of the game, and it will show. The wide receiving corps, pass rush and offensive line of the Colts all dwarf those of the Pack, and all props to quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but Peyton Manning is, simply put, a robot. The man will lead his team to victory as he so often does, giving him another Lombardi Trophy to shove in brother Eli’s face (and you know he does, little punk that Eli is). Congratulations, Colts.
Outcome: Colts 38, Packers 20
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