 "Photo: Photo By Mark Becker / The Ram")
The Atlantic 10 Conference never gets the national respect it deserves. The six "Major" conferences always receive anywhere from four to eight NCAA bids while the A-10 toils for anything, managing to earn three the past two years but only one each of the previous three, despite boasting nationally recognized programs and players year in and year out. While Xavier has proven itself to be the top dog of the A-10, several other teams have shown relatively sustained success (Dayton, Massachusetts, Saint Joseph's and Temple) and a few others have managed excellent one- or two-year runs (George Washington, Rhode Island, St. Bonaventure). Most other teams in the conference are at least showing signs of future potential, with this year's group including the likes of Duquesne, La Salle and Richmond.
Yet as many big-time games as these A-10 teams win – UMass knocked off No. 23 Kansas and Xavier topped No. 9 Memphis last season, among others – the conference is thrown under the bus year in and year out; the only way three teams make the NCAA tournament is the third winning the A-10 Championship unexpectedly.
The A-10 deserves more respect than that. Other "Mid-major" conferences thrive on one team annually representing the conference and lasting deep into the NCAA Tournament, rarely sending more than one team or doing any well even with the second or third bid. The A-10, on the other hand, holds the second-best non-major NCAA Tournament winning percentage (Conference USA holds the best, but falls under the aforementioned category, as first Cincinnati and Charlotte and now Memphis have been lone representatives of the conference this decade).
This year, the A-10 could do a great deal for its national reputation, both now and for years to come. Xavier is down after being abandoned by Sean miller for Arizona (actually, that will turn out to be to Xavier's benefit in the long run) but Dayton should step right in behind junior forward Chris Wright, contending for a top-four seed by NCAA Tournament time. Meanwhile, Duquesne, La Salle and Richmond are ready to contend on the second tier of the conference with exciting and youthful squads. Behind them, programs like Charlotte, George Washington, Massachusetts, Saint Louis, St. Bonaventure and even our very own Fordham are rebuilding with highly touted recruits wanting to prove their worth.
With a few more big wins over top competition this season, and if things fall the right way in A-10 play (meaning several teams keep close to Dayton at the top of the standings), with several of the "Major" conferences weaker this year than ever (with the exception of the SEC) the A-10 could easily see another three bids this season with perhaps another team sneaking in a fourth, not to mention the national exposure the conference would receive with three straight three-bid years. Once tournament time hits, if those three or four bids manage a few wins each, the A-10 could be in line for unprecedented success in the future.
With that to dwell on, let's take a look at the conference this season, team-by-team:
Charlotte 49ers (11-20 overall, 5-11 conference, 12th place)
Key Losses: F LaMont Mack (15.2 ppg, 5.7 rpg), F Charlie Coley (8.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.7 spg, 1.0 bpg)
Key Returnees: PG DiJuan Harris, SG Ian Anderson, SG RaShad Coleman, PF An'Juan Wilderness, C Phil Jones
Newcomers: F Chris Braswell (90 Scouts, Inc. grade), G/F Shamari Spears (transfer from Boston College), F K.J. Sherrill (89), G Shamar Bowden (injury), F Gohkan Sirin (88), PG Derrio Green
Probable starters:
PG: DiJuan Harris (Sr.)
SG: Ian Andersen (Sr.)
SF: Shamari Spears (Jr.)
PF: An'Juan Wilderness (Jr.)
C: Phil Jones (Jr.)
Expected to take a big step back two years ago with the graduation of Leemire Goldwire, the 49ers rebuilt as quickly as possible, with former third-string point guard senior DiJuan Harris coming from nowhere to finish fourth in the nation in assists while playing nearly every minute of every game last season. As good a job as he does running the point, however, it is important to remember that a passer earning assists is dependent on another player making the shot – a problem about which Harris need not worry with senior Ian Andersen at shooting guard. Combined with one of the toughest front courts in the conference (including freshman forward Chris Braswell and, an all-but-guaranteed All-Rookie selection) BC transfer junior guard/forward Shamari Spears, plus a bench including two players who started multiple games last season and three actual impact freshmen, the 49ers will be one of the most dangerous teams on the court each and every night with their relentless fast break and could break into the top five with a bit of luck.
Prediction: Seventh – CBI Bid
Dayton Flyers (27-8, 11-5, fourth)
Key Loss: F Charles Little (8.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG London Warren, G Rob Lowery, G Marcus Johnson, SG Paul Williams G/F Chris Johnson, F Chris Wright, C Kurt Huelsman
Newcomers: C Matt Kavanaugh (89), C Josh Benson (redshirt)
Probable starters:
PG: London Warren (Sr.)
SG: Marcus Johnson (Sr.)
SF: Chris Johnson (So.)
PF: Chris Wright (Jr.)
C: Kurt Huelsman (Sr.)
Dayton is, quite simply, the deepest, most athletic and best team in the conference this season, and it isn't even close. Don't be surprised if the Flyers go undefeated in conference play, as ridiculous at it may sound. Senior guards London Warren and Marcus Johnson can do more than most, and even if one has a bad game, senior guard Rob Lowery is ready, willing and more than capable of stepping in and taking over. Sophomore forward Chris Johnson played sparingly last season but dominated when on the court; Head Coach Brian Gregory will find him more minutes this year, mostly where Charles Little played last season. Senior center Kurt Huelsman clogs up the middle well enough, which means that with all those weapons on the court and demanding attention, teams cannot double up on junior forward Chris Wright, the real star of the show. The preseason Player of the Year is the closest thing to unstoppable the A-10 has seen since Xavier's David West in 2003 with the help of Lionel Chalmers and Romain Sato. Sophomores shooting guard Paul Williams and forward Luke Fabrezius will see significant backup minutes – they would already be starting at most A-10 institutions. Wright and company plan to lead this team deep into the NCAA Tournament, and even an Elite 8 showing is certainly not out of the question.
Prediction: First – NCAA Tournament No. 5 seed
Duquesne Dukes (21-13, 9-7, fifth)
Key Loss: PG Aaron Jackson (19.3 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.7 apg, 1.6 spg)
Key Returnees: PG Eric Evans, SG Jason Duty, G/F Melquan Bolding, F Bill Clark, F Damian Saunders
Newcomers: F Andre Marhold (85), SG Sean Johnson (83), F Rodrigo Peggau (injury), C Morakinyo Williams (UK)
Probable starters:
PG: Eric Evans (So.)
SG: Jason Duty (Sr.)
SF: Melquan Bolding (So.)
PF: Bill Clark (Jr.)
C: Damian Saunders (Jr.)
Aaron Jackson's graduation will hurt this team in all kinds of ways. Not only did he impact four different statistical categories every game, but he was the floor leader and lifeblood for a young team that ran almost exclusively on pure talent last season. This time around, talent won't be enough, as shooting guard Jason Duty, the only senior on the team, has not exhibited the leadership qualities this team needs for at least another season. Sophomore Eric Evans should hold down the point well enough, while Duty hits the deep shots and sophomore wings Melquan Bolding and Bill Clark use their enviable athletic ability to exploit any and all matchups. The main problem for this team is height – by retaining Duty at starting guard, Bolding can play his natural wing position but Clark, who has trouble banging in the paint and performs best shooting from the perimeter and slashing to the basket, is forced to power forward, which in turn pushes 6'7" 210-lbs. junior Damian Saunders, a pure and dominant power forward, to center, where he is undersized and will often be overmatched. Still, the Dukes have too much raw talent to be beaten often or by much, and should finish above average yet again, with the best to come next season, once Duty opens up a guard spot with his graduation.
Prediction: Sixth – NIT No. 6 seed
Fordham Rams (3-25, 1-15, 14th)
Key Losses: SG Trey Blue (8.2 ppg, 2.0 rpg), SF Mike Moore (12.8 ppg, 4.5 rpg), F Chris Bethel (10.3 ppg, 6.5 rpg), C Luke Devine (2.3 ppg, 3.6 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Jio Fontan, G Alberto Estwick, PF acob Green
Newcomers: SG Lance Brown (89), F Chris Gaston (83), F Khiry Gordon (academic redshirt – 73), SG Brenton Butler (injury), PG Brennan Melvin, G/F Danny Thompson, F/C Fahro Alihodzic, G Nicholas Checovich
Redshirting: F Brian Freeman (academics – 77)
Probable starters:
PG: Jio Fontan (So.)
SG: Brenton Butler (Jr.)
SF: Alberto Estwick (So.)
PF: Chris Gaston (Fr.)
C: Jacob Green (Jr.)
Yet again the Rams will be a young team, but this year they will not be inexperienced. Sophomore guards Jio Fontan and Alberto Estwick played numerous quality minutes last season while junior forward Jacob Green reacquainted himself with the game after basically not playing for two years. Meanwhile, junior shooting guard Brenton Butler returns from injury after two full seasons starting with Bryant Dunston, Marcus Stout, Sebastian Greene and Kevin Anderson, meaning his experience is both unmatched and vital to this team. With the addition of freshman forward Chris Gaston, who posted double-doubles in exhibition games against Seton Hall and Mercy last Thursday (12-17 shooting for 27 points, 17 rebounds and three blocks), and with freshman forward Khiry Gordon and guard Lance Brown coming off the bench, the Rams will have one of the more athletic rotations in the conference, if not a very polished one. Although Butler will take some time to get used to the game's pace again, the Rams should be fine with one of the more forgiving non-conference schedules in recent years and by conference play find enough of a groove to make it back to the A-10 Championship, although a trip to Boardwalk Hall in Atlantic City may not happen with first-round matchups now taking place on campus sites.
Prediction: 11th
George Washington Colonials (10-18, 4-12, 13th)
Key Losses: F Rob Diggs (13.4 ppg, 7.3 rpg, 1.7 bpg), G Wynton Witherspoon (7.6 ppg, 3.5 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Tony Taylor, SG Travis King, F Damian Hollis
Newcomers: F David Pellom (86), F Daymon Warren (85), SG Tim Johnson (84), SG Lasan Kromah
Probable starters:
PG: Tony Taylor (So.)
SG: Travis King (Jr.)
SF: David Pellom (Fr.)
PF: Damian Hollis (Sr.)
C: Joseph Katuka (Jr.)
Since Pops Mensah-Bonsu's departure in 2006, the Colonials have fallen straight off the map. With Rob Diggs and Wynton Witherspoon now also gone, the team will turn to forward Damian Hollis, a potential All-A-10 First Teamer, to lead a trio of high-ceiling freshmen, including likely starter forward David Pellom, in an attempt to make the conference tournament as a foundation for a seemingly constantly rebuilding program. Hollis should keep GW in games, at least for the first half, but then things will be up to guards Tony Taylor and Travis King to give the team a chance late (as long as they keep their jobs, that is), and Pellom will have to step up at some point if the Colonials hope to win said games. The odds of all those variables coming together each and every week, however, are slim, as no players on the current squad have experienced success of any kind. Simply put, this team is awful and it would be a huge surprise for it to contend in many, if any, A-10 games. Look for players to rotate in and out of the starting lineup all season, with sophomore forward Jabari Edwards and freshman shooting guard Lasan Kromah to push for playing time early, with junior shooting guard Travis King the most likely to drop out quickly.
Prediction: 14th
La Salle Explorers (18-13, 9-7, seventh)
Key Loss: F Paul Johnson (4.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg, 1.2 spg)
Key Returnees: PG Ruben Guillandeaux, SG Rodney Green, G Kimmani Barrett, F Yves Mekongo Mbala, F Jerrell Williams
Newcomers: C Aaric Murray (92), C Devon White (redshirt – 76)
Probable starters:
PG: Ruben Guillandeaux (Sr.)
SG: Rodney Green (Sr.)
SF: Kimmani Barrett (Sr.)
PF: Yves Mekongo Mbala (Sr.)
C: Aaric Murray (Fr.)
This is the Explorers' year. Four seniors are joined by the most physically prepared freshman in the conference in their attempt to earn the program's first NCAA bid since 1992 (and post only the second winning season since then – all this sound familiar?). Likely All-A-10 First Team senior guard/forward Rodney Green leads the pack as perhaps the best all-around player in the conference and has a capable supporting cast in point guard Ruben Guillandeaux and forwards Kimmani Barrett and Yves Mekongo Mbala, all who averaged at least 10 points per game last season. Add into the mix the youth and hunger of freshman center Aaric Murray, a strong Rookie of the Year candidate, and his depending-where-you-look 6'10"-6'11", 245-265-lbs. frame and the Explorers have perhaps the most complete lineup in the A-10. With senior forward Vernon Goodridge and twin junior forwards Jerrell and Terrell Williams capable of starting at most other A-10 schools, along with redshirt freshman center Devon White, the bench is solid and just deep enough to make La Salle a serious contender – for second place.
Prediction: Third – NCAA No. 11 seed
Massachusetts Minutemen (12-18, 7-9, 10th)
Key Losses: PG Chris Lowe (12.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 6.4 apg), F Tony Gaffney (11.5 ppg, 10.2 rpg, 3.8 bpg), C Luke Bonner (6.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Gary Correia, SG Ricky Harris, G Anthony Gurley
Newcomers: F Terrell Vinson (93), F Raphael Putney (88), G/F Freddie Riley (87), F Sampson Carter (82), SG Javon Farrell (72), F Sean Carter (Oregon State)
Probable starters:
PG: David Gibbs (So.)
SG: Ricky Harris (Sr.)
SF: Anthony Gurley (Jr.)
PF: Terrell Vinson (Fr.)
C: Sean Carter (So.)
After suffering far more of a drop off after Player of the Year Gary Forbes' departure, the Minutemen return another candidate for Player of the Year in senior shooting guard Ricky Harris following the losses of the A-10's top point guard, Chris Lowe, and surprising top big man, Tony Gaffney. Harris will finally get his chance to shine after playing in Dionte Christmas' shadow for three years, always finishing just behind in points per game to the three-time scoring leader. Having recruited a Forbes-like talent in forward Terrell Vinson (only this time around UMass will get him for all four years; Forbes transferred to UMass after playing two years at Virginia), as well as several other highly touted forwards, Head Coach Derek Kellogg may well be on his way to resurrecting UMass' program. Although losing Lowe will hurt the efficiency of the dribble-drive offense from his Memphis assistant coaching days, Kellogg does have sophomore guard David Gibbs and junior guard Gary Correia available to run things from the point, and with athletic big man sophomore Sean Carter, formerly of Oregon State, at center, the Minutemen will be running the floor against teams all season.
Prediction: 10th
Rhode Island Rams (23-11, 11-5, third)
Key Losses: SG Jimmy Baron (17.4 ppg, 2.7 rpg, 118 3-pointers), C Kahiem Seawright (14.2 ppg, 7.5 rpg, 1.0 bpg)
Key Returnees: PG Marquis Jones, PG Steve Mejia, SG Keith Cothran, F Lamonte Ulmer, F Delroy James
Newcomers: PG Akeem Richmond (86), F Ryan Brooks (84)
Probable starters:
PG: Marquis Jones (Jr.)
SG: Keith Cothran (Sr.)
SF: Lamonte Ulmer (Sr.)
PF: Delroy James (Jr.)
C: Will Martell (Jr.)
Sure, the Rams lost only two players from an offensive powerhouse and still have four-time Coach of the Year (three at URI) Jim Baron, but the loss of the better of the two Barons – Jim's son – will cripple this team, and Kahiem Seawright's departure only serves to condemn it. As good of players as junior point guard Marquis Jones, senior guard Keith Cothran, senior forward Lamonte Ulmer and junior forward Delroy James all are, Baron was the variable that started and ended things for the Rhody Rams – the man made shots from halfcourt with regularity. Although the bench is deep enough – sophomore point guard Steve Mejia, freshman guard Akeem Richmond (who should be the surprise of the season in Kingston) and sophomore guard Jamal Wilson will all contribute significant and quality minutes – the front court is either not large or talented enough, depending who is playing. Junior center Will Martel looks lost on the court, sophomore forward Orion Outerbridge is too thin, and no one else is over either 6'8" or 220 lbs. Any team with a true big man will dominate the Rams, and without Baron to save the day they will crash and burn late in games.
Prediction : Eighth – CIT Invitation
Richmond Spiders (20-16, 9-7, eighth)
Key Loss: F Jarhon Giddings (8.0 ppg, 3.9 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Kevin Anderson, SG David Gonzalvez, F Kevin Smith, F Ryan Butler, F Justin Harper, F Josh Duinker
Newcomers: PG Darien Brothers (85), G/F Greg Robbins (73), C Dan Geriot (injury)
Probable starters:
PG: Kevin Anderson (Jr.)
SG: David Gonzalvez (Sr.)
SF: Kevin Smith (Jr.)
PF: Justin Harper (Jr.)
C: Dan Geriot (Jr.)
Richmond hoped to make it big last season, but when junior center Dan Geriot went down with an ACL injury in the preseason, those hopes were immediately dashed. In his absence, Richmond was unexpectedly forced to play small and still finished with 20 wins and a relatively successful CBI campaign. Leading the charge was then-sophomore point guard Kevin Anderson, who showed great maturity and leadership on the court and parlayed those into being widely considered the conference's premier point guard heading into this season. Senior shooting guard David Gonzalvez was one of the biggest scoring threats in the A-10 and should be again this season while departed center Jarhon Giddings filled in quite capably in Geriot's absence. Now, Geriot is back, and Richmond is ready to topple conference heavyweight Xavier and give Dayton a good run. An NCAA bid is the goal, and quite an attainable one. With Geriot back in the middle as the A-10's top center, the entire team's production could increase 10-20 percent, especially junior forward Justin Harper's, as he often faced double teams in the paint last season. Inexperience could play a role this season, however, and Geriot figures to take a little while to get used to his reconstructed knee ligaments, so most are tempering expectations to a degree. Don't be one of them – the Spiders will be underestimated by many, and those teams will pay dearly.
Prediction: Second – NCAA Tournament No. 12 seed
Saint Joseph's Hawks (17-15, 9-7, sixth)
Key Losses: PG Tasheed Carr (14.3 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 4.3 apg), F Ahmad Nivins (19.2 ppg, 11.8 rpg, 2.0 bpg, .612 FG percentage)
Key Returnees: G Darrin Govens, G Garrett Williamson, F Idris Hilliard
Newcomers: PG Carl Jones (87), PG Justin Crosgile (86), F Carl Baptiste (83), C Todd O'Brien (Bucknell)
Probable starters:
PG: Carl Jones (Fr.)
SG: Darrin Govens (Sr.)
SF: Garrett Williamson (Sr.)
PF: Idris Hilliard (Jr.)
C: Todd O'Brien (So.)
The Hawks, long one of the top programs year in and year out regardless of what the pundits predicted, have fallen on hard times. Perhaps due to his world-weary, more-concerned-with-his-book-writing approach, Phil Martelli has failed in recent years to recruit the type of players he used to, and the graduation of point guard Tasheed Carr and power forward Ahmad Nivins will highlight the lack of talent left on the Hawks squad. Three capable players return and two talented point guards highlight the newcomers, but none are likely to garner conference honors as Nivins, Carr, Pat Calathes and players of old once did. This is a team in transition, and unfortunately for the ever-flapping Hawk mascot and fans, Martelli does not seem fully committed to that transition, which could make for an extensive period of mediocrity.
Prediction: 12th
Saint Louis Billikens (18-14, 8-8, ninth)
Key Losses: G Kevin Lisch (14.1 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 2.6 apg, 1.25 spg), G/F Tommie Liddell III (11.3 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 2.7 apg)
Key Returnees: PG Kwamain Mitchell, F Brian Conklin, F Willie Reed
Newcomers: F Jon Smith (88), SG Christian Salecich (88), PG Justin Jordan (87), PF Cody Ellis (87), SG Jeff Reid (87), F Cory Remekun (86), G Femi John (redshirt)
Probable starters:
PG: Kwamain Mitchell (So.)
SG: Jeff Reid (Fr.)
SF: Brian Conklin (So.)
PF: Jon Smith (Fr.)
C: Willie Reed (So.)
Guard Kevin Lisch and swingman Tommie Liddell III return once again – no, wait, that's right, they have both finally graduated. After leading the Billikens for four years, Lisch and Liddell have left the program bereft of experience, although Head Coach Rick Majerus has made certain that St. Louis has talent. Two straight recruiting classes of eight and six players, respectively (although two have since left) all rated as future impact players in the A-10 (between 86 and 89 ratings by Scouts, Inc.), form as solid a foundation as any program in the conference, but the Billikens will have problems this year. Only one of the freshmen is physically ready to compete at the college level (6'8" 240 lbs. forward Cody Ellis), as the other five are all sub-200 lbs. The long season will take a toll on their frail frames by the beginning of conference play, although probable starters shooting guard Jeff Reid and forward Jon Smith will star early in the season. As controversial as Majerus' coaching style and overall attitude are, he had great success with Utah, and with the commitment Saint Louis is putting into its basketball program, the team has great things ahead, and soon – just not this year.
Prediction: 13th
St. Bonaventure Bonnies (15-15, 6-10, 11th)
Key Losses: G Ray Blackburn (8.0 ppg, 2.5 rpg, 3.0 apg), C Maurice Thomas (9.4 ppg, 6.1 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Malcolm Eleby, SG Chris Matthews, G/F Jonathon Hall, F Andrew Nicholson
Newcomers: PF Brett Roseboro (86), G/F Demetrius Conger (84), F Jake Houseknecht (redshirt), F Marquise Simmons (redshirt), PG Ogo Adegobye (junior college), SG Lewis Leonard (junior college), G/F Kelvin Agee
Probable starters:
PG: Malcolm Eleby (Jr.)
SG: Chris Matthews (Sr.)
SF: Jonathon Hall (Sr.)
PF: Andrew Nicholson (So.)
C: Da'Quan Cook (So.)
In an attempt to salvage some pride even years after the recruiting scandals and such rocked the Bonnies' program in 2003, Head Coach Mark Schmidt made perhaps the most ironic and risky move in A-10 history. As the 2003 scandals were brought about namely by an ineligible junior college transfer, Schmidt decided to hasten the program's resurrection by bringing in two new junior college transfers – guards Chris Matthews and Jonathon Hall. The move would have earned him Coach of the Year had it not been for URI's fantastic rise to the top of the conference on the shoulders of Jimmy Baron Jr. Expected to finish dead last by many, Matthews and Hall teamed up with freshman forward Andrew Nicholson, the conference's biggest surprise out of Toronto, to maneuver the Bonnies through the conference slate to the A-10 Championship for the first time since 2005 and the most (legal) team wins in seven years. Nicholson won Rookie of the Year on the strength of his NCAA freshmen-leading block total and field goal percentage. Schmidt must figure that the same approach can work again, as he has brought two new junior college transfers to campus over the past year, meaning guards Lewis leonard and Ogo Adegboye are eligible to take the court this season. If history repeats itself, the Bonnies could be hunting for a top-half conference finish, an unheard-of proposal just 11 months ago.
Prediction: Ninth
Temple Owls (22-12, 11-5, second)
Key Losses: SG Dionte Christmas (19.5 ppg, 5.8 rpg, 2.9 apg, 1.5 spg, 107 3-pointers), PG Semaj Inge (6.9 ppg, 3.9 rpg, 3.6 apg, 1.2 spg), C Sergio Olmos (8.4 ppg, 4.1 rpg)
Key Returnees: PG Juan Fernandez, G Ryan Brooks, F Craig Williams, F Lavoy Allen
Newcomers: F Rahlir Jefferson (85), SG Khalif Wyatt (83), SG Ramone Moore (academics)
Probable starters:
PG: Juan Fernandez (So.)
SG: Ramone Moore (So.)
SF: Ryan Brooks (Sr.)
PF: Lavoy Allen (Jr.)
C: Craig Williams (Jr.)
On everyone's mind is the departure of shooting guard Dionte Christmas, three-time conference scoring leader and both the focal point and backup option in the Owls' offense for years. Most expect temple to take a big dip as the team finds an identity bereft of Christmas, but that will not be the case. Gone also are the infinitely overused Christmas puns also, meaning writers and bloggers will have to start thinking up the same for junior power forward Lavoy Allen, the purest athlete in the conference. Known for his ferocity in the paint and flat-footed dunks, Allen could double his scoring numbers (10.9 ppg) without Christmas hogging the ball, and although center Sergio Olmos has also left, junior forward Craig Williams and sophomore forward Michael Eric will share time effectively at center (together they should combine for 15 ppg and nine rpg), giving Allen enough wiggle room to showcase his raw athleticism. Meanwhile, Argentinean sophomore point guard Juan Frenandez will take over full-time for the also-departed Inge, who was a good player but will not be missed – Fernandez is more versatile, exploits matchups better and ran the offense more effectively anyway once he became eligible in December. The Owls have the talent to make the top-four, and will go as far as Allen can take them, but Christmas' absence will be felt late in some games – probably enough to drop one or two against more experienced teams with clutch shooters, which should be enough for Temple to still earn an NIT bid.
Prediction: Fifth – NIT No. 5 seed
Xavier Musketeers (27-8, 12-4, first)
Key Losses: SG B.J. Raymond (14.1 ppg, 4.1 rpg), F C.J. Anderson (9.9 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 2.5 apg), F Derrick Brown (13.7 ppg, 6.1 rpg, 1.9 apg)
Key Returnees: G Dante Jackson, F Jamel McLean, C Jason Love, C Kenny Frease
Newcomers: F Jeff Robinson (89), G Jordan Crawford (Indiana), PG Mark Lyons (redshirt – 87), SG Brian Walsh (redshirt – 88)
Probable starters:
PG: Mark Lyons (Fr.)
SG: Jordan Crawford (So.)
SF: Dante Jackson (Jr.)
PF: Jamel McLean (Jr.)
C: Jason Love (Sr.)
In the wake of Sean Miller's exit in favor of Arizona (he left this year because the last of Thad Matta's final recruiting class finally graduated), the Musketeers are expected to cede the top spot to Dayton this season but still finish comfortably in second. As much of a basketball fool as Miller was (his overall poor coaching lost the NCAA game against No. 1 Ohio State three years ago and his failure to prepare his players for crunch time showed in another last-second loss to No. 1 Pittsburgh in the 2009 NCAA tournament), the absence of his many mistakes each game will not be enough to outweigh the severe lack of experience on this year's roster. The players are good, make no mistake, but senior center Jason Love, whose ferocity under the basket is unmatched, is the only one who has seen regular court time in the last year (although junior guard Dante Jackson played very well in limited minutes last season). Sophomore shooting guard Jordan Crawford is probably the most talented, but both he and freshman point guard Mark Lyons sat out last season after transferring from Indiana and redshirting due to academics, respectively. 2009's starting point guard, sophomore Terrell Holloway, has probably already lost his job due to his failure to make plays last season (about all he did was hit his first 30-plus free throw attempts in a row) – Lyons' ball-handling ability would be tops in any conference. The ‘X'-factor here (pun not intended) is 7'0" sophomore center Kenny Frease, who played well in overwhelmingly limited minutes last season under Miller, who has a knack for underutilizing his best players (Stanley Burrell in 2006-2007, Josh Duncan in 2008 and Frease in 2009). Although many who saw Frease play last year remarked that he looked slow and clueless, Frease conceded nothing in the paint on the offensive end and little on the defensive, and increased minutes should remedy the clueless look quickly enough. The Musketeers have unsurpassed talent on the roster, but it is too young and inexperienced to play to its full potential this season, although next year the team could easily reclaim its top spot in the A-10 – that is, if Richmond doesn't find an answer for David Gonzalvez's departure after the season. This year the Musketeers will struggle all season to find an identity between the collective inexperience.
Prediction: Fourth – NIT No. 2 seed
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